Extra! Extra!

You Read It Here First

• Oil has lost over $8 the last two days. If the runup in crude
  oil prices is, as has been contended often, mostly driven by
  speculators and hysteria, let's all remember that hysteria works in
  both directions. On the upside, it's called "irrational exuberance".
  On the downside, it's called panic.
• All commodities, actually, are down rather significantly from
  their highs, including precious metals and even corn and wheat. It
  appears that our capacity to grow things, find things, and innovate out
  of needing things is, in fact, expanding. Shocker.
• Bonds are up, the stock market is down, and despite FNMA and
  FHLMC writing off another $42 billion in bad debt yesterday, both those
  stocks are up this morning and there isn't any apparent worry that the
  backbone of the mortgage system will collapse any time soon.
• Fact is, the vast majority of homeowners will pay their bills on
  time and repay their mortgages on schedule. There's a lot of hysteria
  out there in the credit markets, but there are still good loans to be
  had, and lots of good people that need them. Lenders need to add
  really good loans to their portfolios, and are keeping rates relatively
  low to attract them.
• Here's the prediction: the sky is not falling. Oil will not hit
  $150 a barrel this year. Gas will not reach $5 a gallon this year, or
  next year. Mortgage rates will not hit 7% this year or next year. By
  spring of next year there will be a significant, noticeable rally in
  real estate. The world financial system will not collapse. Innovation
  will explode.
• You read it here first.

Cj


www.thechrisjonesgroup.com