Early, but Correct Nonetheless

Today we’ll have the second half of Geoff Beckstrom’s article on investing, so I’ll be brief.

Bernanke is going to be confirmed.  Bank on it (ha ha).  What he will do then is anyone’s guess.  Some are discussing his being willing to take a break from rate hikes.  It is devoutly to be wished, but I wouldn’t bet on it.  Next week we’ll take an alternative view of things and talk about how rising home mortgage rates negatively impact housing prices, and what has to happen in the broader economy to make that negative impact as small as possible.  It’s the kind of analysis you only get here.

Before getting to the predictions, we want to point out that last Friday I predicted that Harriet Miers would withdraw her name from nomination for the Supreme Court.  Add that prediction to the “correct” column.  We are now lobbying for Janice Rogers Brown, or if you hate women, how about Danny Julian Boggs, who despite his name is Hispanic.  Here’s the thing.  There are enormous numbers of very qualified candidates.  The conservative bench is wide and deep, and it has on it ranks of women and minorities who are articulate, bright, and very well qualified.  How Harriet Miers got the nod among so many, I have no idea.  Or maybe I do.  

Predictions for the weekend:

Tonight CSU loses to New Mexico by a field goal (sorry, Ray)
No Supreme Court appointment is made this weekend
BYU destroys Air Force 45-17
Now that the White Sox have won the World Series, following the Red Sox winning last year, the Cubs become the hot favorite to win the whole thing next season
Northwestern beats Michigan in a game where over 100 points are scored
Georgia beats Florida in a game where fewer than 20 points are scored
My brother’s Washington Redskins take 1st place in the NFC East by beating the Giants
Steve’s Denver Broncos beat the Philly Eagles by 1

On with Investment Advice from Geoff Beckstrom… (read Part One here)

Rule #4 – The difference between gambling and speculation.  People have told me time and time again that its bad business to ever compare gambling and investing, it scares away clients.  I disagree; I think it is an excellent comparison.  For example, if you go to a casino and sit at a black jack table you bet on your hand, if you win you double your money, if you lose you lose all your money.  However, on a given day I can “gamble” that the dollar (or oil, or bond rates, or the Yen, or any individual stock) will go up or down.  If I am right, I may double my money, I may earn some percentage of my money, I may more than double my money.  If I am wrong, I can set a predetermined amount of money I am willing to lose, I do not lose all of my money.  Secondly, depending on the number of decks used, number of people at the table and the house rules each black jack hand has more or less a 50-50 chance.  The “odds” of a particular investment going up or down (or not moving in value at all) change on a regular basis.  The key is to learn how to predict those odds and to “bet” win the odds are in your favor and be strong enough to not play when the odds are not in your favor.  Casinos would not be open for very long if there was a system that allowed players to know that “red” had a 70% of being hit when ever three consecutive blacks came up.  Players would sit at roulette tables for hours waiting to see three straight blacks and would then bet big on red knowing they would win more then twice as often as losing.

Rule #5 – Earning money matters.  Who owns a Lexmark printer?  I do.  It’s a great printer and a great company.  Lexmark stock (LXK) has dropped in the last month from $65 to $42.  Want to know why?  Lexmark announced that for the third quarter for this year they will earn about $500 million dollars rather than $980 million dollars as was expected.  I won’t go into the details of why the sales number was cut almost in half, but needless to say, if you’re considering buying a stock, Id take a look at Lexmark right now.  People will continue to buy printers and Lexmark will continue to make them.

On the flip side.  Google is now at $320 per share.  How does Google make money?  Advertising.  How else?  If you don’t know the answer to that question than you should not be buying any shares of Google.  Companies can only have high share prices for so long when they aren’t making any money.

Rule #6 – The only “economy” or “market” that matters is YOURS.  The Nasdaq may be down, the Dow may be down, talking heads may be crying rivers over how bad the US economy is and mortgage rates may be going up.  None of this matters if your economy (read – budget) is in good shape.  The opposite is true as well.

Rule #7 – Markets ARE NOT efficient or in other words people overreact and you can profit from it.  Stocks will generally go much higher than they should on good news and drop much more than they should on bad news, you can make a lot of money acting on this rule and recognizing when it happens.

Enough of the rules- I have many more but I’m afraid I’ve already bored most of you.  Ill conclude with my investing philosophy even with a few how to’s.

First – learn basic accounting.  The only way you can manage your own finances or examine the finances of a possible investment is to know what a Balance Sheet and P&L is and how to read them.  My suggestion is that you create a Balance Sheet and P&L for your own family budget.

Second – Concentrate on Net Worth.  I know a lot of people (and a lot of stocks) that earn a lot of money and aren’t worth anything.  You can earn a million dollars in a year but if you spend two million and have another three million in debt……you’re not doing any good.  On the flip side, you can earn $30,000 a year and if you are willing to live within a budget and you’re willing to learn some investing techniques, you can within a few years, build an investment portfolio that will allow you to earn that same $30,000 a year without having to go to work everyday.  How much you are worth (assets minus liabilities) is more important than how much you earn (cash flow).

As long as this has been, I have not even begun to scratch the surface.  I do not mean in any way to use Chris’ request for a guest writer to be a blatant solicitation, my hope is that you may find some of this educational or at least have been given some things to think about.

A list of stocks that I am watching and why – (DO NOT buy any of these stocks just because you read them here)-

Home Depot – HD – There is going to be A LOT of construction in Mississippi and Louisiana and Texas and supplies have to be bought somewhere.

Lowes - LOW - Same as Home Depot

XOG, ETO – Two large oil companies that have land based (not shore or off shore based) oil rigs which have not been affected by hurricanes.

Lexmark – LXK – Lexmark is on sale, see rule #7.


Hope you have found this useful.  If not let Chris know so he can permanently banish me from what has otherwise been a civilized and entertaining blog.

-Geoff

Blogs, Bernanke, and Beckstrom

Thought I would start off today with a digest of links and info for your perusal.  On mortgages, there are at least three blogs I can now recommend: Oakland Real Estate, Sacramento Real Estate (CA is ahead of the curve on these things), and especially a tiny-but-growing blog from Lansing, MI – The Pacesetter Mortgage Blog – and I want to especially call your attention to a great post David Porter wrote about mortgage prequals.  We have added Dave’s blog to our blogroll, and recommend it to you.

There are reams of data coming in on Ben Bernanke, and as far as I can sort it out, nobody really knows what the guy’s going to do.  Alert Reader Gordon sent us 2 analyses from the Wall Street Journal, but it’s on their subscription site, which you have to pay for.  We don’t steal content, so we’ll just quote a couple of graphs and link you to the subscription site where you can get the whole story.
From Arthur Laffer (a fellow I respect): “Ben Bernanke, Bush 43's selection for Fed chairman, stands on the shoulders of giants (in Mr. Volcker's case, this is literally true). Mr. Bernanke was my first choice for the Fed chair and has all the traits needed to be great. He's got his Ph.D., is incredibly scholarly, and has lots of practical experience, having served a three-year stint as a member of the Board at the Fed itself and as chairman of the president's Council of Economic Advisers. But above and beyond his résumé, Ben Bernanke has the temperament to be the Fed chairman. Anyone who has ever heard him speak knows he is careful and deliberative, and not prone to panic.
I have never witnessed or even read about an economy that comes close to the excellence of the current U.S. economy. In spite of all the rhetoric to the contrary, it just doesn't get any better. We need a Fed chairman who understands the importance of not rocking the boat, who is stable, solid and sticks to basics. Ben Bernanke is the right person at the right time.”
That’s encouraging.
From Edward Chancellor (a fellow I don’t like much): “The White House's announcement of a replacement for Alan Greenspan as Fed chairman has been awaited with growing suspense. Yesterday's nomination of Ben Bernanke appears something of an anticlimax. The stock market rose slightly on the news. Yet if the current chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers is confirmed by the Senate and takes over in late January, the markets will have plenty of time to reassess this initial judgment.
The former Princeton professor is deemed to have adapted quickly to the ways of Washington and Wall Street. Mr. Bernanke is being sold as a safe pair of hands. According to President Bush, he "commands deep respect in the global financial community." His nominee, the president added, was "the right man to build on the record Alan Greenspan has established." The favorable reaction of the markets supports Mr. Bush's first claim, while his personal record suggests that a Bernanke-led Fed would represent a continuation of the Greenspan era.”
So maybe I ought to revise my opinion.  But so far, I’m not going to.  Laffer is one of the gurus of the Say’s Law Supply-Side Revolution, but his support for Bernanke is incompatible with Greenspan’s recent moves, assuming (as he does) that Bernanke will continue the Fed’s current course.
For the uninitiated, we here at the Group continue to believe that the economy is not doing very well and that continued rate hikes will lead to a rise in inflation and a recession in the broader economy.  We believe that Greenspan ought to have chopped rates recently rather than raising them.  We believe that the current enormous rise in short-term ARM product rates (the rate on some 3-year ARMs right now is higher than the 30-year fixed) is unnecessary and harmful and that a downturn in housing markets will lead to a recession as sure as God made little green apples.
We make these analyses largely for our investors, who are looking at long-term rates trying to forecast what to do with real-estate holdings.  Currently, we can recommend only a couple of things – there are still some good deals to be had in the foreclosure/flip market, though those are harder to come by and require cash and patience, and there are profits to be had in new construction, especially in houses above $250,000.  Other than that, buy a house, pay it down, get cash in hand and wait.  If the recession comes, the market will be flooded with foreclosures and “distressed” properties that can be had for a song.
No matter the market, there’s money to be made somewhere.
And finally, we promised this some time ago but only now got around to posting it: we have a guest article by Geoff Beckstrom, one of our clients and a blogger we like.  First half today, second half tomorrow.  Enjoy.
My Investment Philosophy and Rules

I worked as a stockbroker and investment advisor for six years before leaving the industry completely disillusioned.  You can read my blog (not updated daily, but usually 3 times a week) at www.gbfx.blogspot.com

The financial media much like the sports media and news media takes advantage of the fact that most people believe what they are told and do not investigate the facts themselves.

First the disclaimer – None of this article is a solicitation to purchase or sell any security.  This article is written for educational and entertainment purposes only.  You are responsible for any gain or loss received from any actions you take financially.

Please note that I am only throwing in small tidbits I’ve picked up over the last 10 or so years in this industry.  If you are interested in learning more please contact me and I’d be happy to answer any further detailed questions.

Now my investment rules-

Rule #1 – The answer to EVERY investment question is – “it depends”.  What that means is that every investor must find their own investment philosophy and strategy.  I have had a number of investing clients who after earning 15-20% returns in a single month, take all their money away from my management after a month when they lost 5%.  Other investors have stayed with me after losing over half of their money in a high risk trade and more than made all of it back over time.  You need to know your own personal financial intelligence and emotional maturity before you go into any investment strategy.

Rule #2 – The SEC is NOT your friend and Mutual Funds are NOT your friend.  These two are in bed together and their interest is NOT to make you money but to make themselves money and to keep you as ignorant as possible.  I’m not anti-government and I’m not anti-mutual funds.  If spending 4 or 5 hours to study a stock before making a purchase is too much work for you and if you’re not willing to pay for the services of an investment advisor then mutual funds are perfect for you, one step better than keeping your money in the bank.  I’ve never owned a mutual fund, I will never own a mutual fund and I don’t recommend to any of my clients to own a mutual fund.  I know millionaires who became such from real estate, from hard money loans, from day trading and from starting their own business and selling a product and/or service.  I have never met anyone who became wealthy from owning mutual funds.

Rule #3 – “Bulls climb the stairs but Bears jump out the windows”.  Bull markets are going up, bear markets are going down.  Markets drop must faster than they rise.  I have made much more money when things have dropped than when they are rising.  

To be continued….

No Longer A Rumor

So it's not a rumor after all. Bush introduced Ben Bernanke today as his nominee for Fed Chair. He appears to be more qualified than Harriet Miers, which isn't saying much, but if I were you, I'd still be looking into food and water storage against future hard times.

Here's Bernanke's article in the Wall Street Journal from earlier this summer. It's not a bad read, and I probably ought not to make him out to be the Wicked Witch of the West. The general philosophy of central banking makes it really hard to have a fellow in charge that is a true Austrian, so I suppose I should just be glad he's being appointed by Bush instead of Kerrey. At least Bush has actually had a job. Well, okay, but he knows someone that has.

Mortgages Hit By Bernanke Rumor

Markets opened flat but bonds dropped like a rock when it was floated that Ben Bernanke would become the next Fed Chair.  This is how screwed up the markets are.  We have a rumor that Bernanke will be named to replace Greenspan, and since he is a Greenspan disciple, the bond markets take this as a bad sign.

So much for Greenspan’s reputation as an inflation-fighter.

The stock market is behaving healthily, though, so the news is not uniformly bad.

Let’s look at the current market situation in real-estate and mortgages as it affects Joe Sixpack:

If you have a 30-year fixed loan at 7% or higher, you probably ought to look at refinancing.

If you have an ARM with 2 years or less to run, you definitely should look at refinancing.

If you have an option ARM, fully variable loan, depending on your prepay penalty you ought to check into moving to a fixed rate.

If you are thinking of buying a house in the next year, the time to start looking is right now.  House prices tend to fall through the winter and rise in the spring.

If you are an investor looking to realize $20,000 or more profit in the next year, your best bet in Utah at the moment is to build a house in the $250,000 range.

Currently, rates for verified-income, owner-occupied properties are 6.125% on a 30-year fixed, 5.375% on a 15-year fixed, 5.875% on a 5/1 ARM, and we’re not even discussing other options except under duress.  Construction financing, however, is easier than ever to get and requires no payments during the construction phase.  We have a couple of no-down construction investors that can get you digging in around two weeks.  That’s the hottest part of the market right at the moment.

Predictions for the weekend were mixed.  Harriet Miers did not withdraw, which I’m just telling you right now is a mistake, and the Broncos actually lost on the last play of the game.  Texas did beat Texas Tech, but by way more than 14, and they trailed in the first quarter, CSU did win the Border War, but not by a field goal, BYU did lose to Notre Dame, but by 26, not by a special-teams play, and the Colts won big, but only by 18, not 28.

The White Sox won both home games.  That one was right on.

On Saturday night we watched Roberto Benigni’s masterpiece La Vita é Bella, which I wholeheartedly recommend to anyone with a soul.  I’ve been reading a lot recently about Hungary in World War II, which might have been the worst place on earth to be.  The Hungarians started as part of the Axis, then tried to make peace in 1943, had to fight the Germans to keep from being occupied in 1944, lost, then had to fight the Russians to keep from being occupied in 1945, and lost again.  The Swiss Delegation reports that Budapest was hit harder than Stalingrad.

Oh, humanity.  What a rare thing it is.

Sense and Sensibility

Let’s start with the market news today, which is summed up in the Empire State manufacturing index, which purports to show economic conditions for manutfacturers.  Last month it was at 15.58.  This month’s forecast was for 17.1.  The actual number was 12.08.  Bond traders reacted by saying “well, yeah, but the Fed’s going to keep raising rates, so what the heck, let’s keep selling.”  And they did.

And people say economics is confusing.

The weekend was great, thanks for asking, and my little Charlotte turned 4 on Friday.  There’s nothing whatever in the world to compare with the joy of a hug from one of my little girls, unless it’s a hug from one of my wonderful sons.  Or my wife.

But BYU thwacking CSU comes pretty close.  The Cougars unveiled their Bo Schembechler-style running game and just ran over the Rams 24-14.  So my score prediction was wrong but the winner was correct.

The other predictions ALL CAME IN.  Notre Dame lost in the final seconds (by 3, not by 2, and it wasn’t a field goal), we are still #1 on Technorati, the White Sox actually pushed the Angels right over the brink, and the Astros have the Cardinals one game away from the end of their season as well, just as predicted.

So my credibility as an economist is just shot.  You can’t get this much stuff correct and hope to keep any sort of street cred in a field as often incorrect as economics.

I’ll try to do worse this week.

Keynes, Say, Mortgages, and Predictions

You ever keep a journal?  Here’s my problem.  I try to write every week, but there’s just so much that has happened I don’t know where to begin.  Add to that the fact that I just did all this stuff and now I really don’t want to talk about it, and it’s pretty hard to keep the thing going.  This blog is very similar.  There’s lots of stuff happening.  But how much of it do I really want to talk about?

Let’s start from the necessary stuff.  Mortgage rates are going in the tank.  Bonds have dropped steadily for three weeks and we are now at a six-month low on the yield, which pushes the 30-year rate over 6% and the 15-year rate over 5.5%.  There really isn’t a lot of economic news to cause this change, but bond traders are now convinced that the Fed will keep jacking up short-term rates, probably even after Greenspan retires.  We’re big fans here of Robert McTeer as a replacement.  

McTeer appears likely to at least understand Say’s Law, which essentially says that the more production the economy engages in, the richer everyone gets.  Since the major obstacle to production is expensive capital, raising short-term interest rates is one sure way to close down production.  Most of the Fed Governors are devotees of Keynesian economics, which is such bad economic theory that even I can see that it’s delusional.  What they are doing by engineering interest rates is shutting down capital expansion on the theory that if there’s too much production, prices will rise.

Econ 101, people – oversupply creates downward pressure on prices, not upward.  Keynes believes (you didn’t really come here for a lesson in advanced economic theory, did you?  Tough noogies.) that inflation (which is “bad”) is created by too little money chasing too many goods.  In the actual real world, you know, where the people live, the more goods there are, the less they will cost and the more purchasing power each dollar will have.  That would be a good thing.  It always is.  But according to the Fed, and especially according to Greenspan, too much economic growth creates inflationary pressure.  Whatever.  Ignore, I guess, the last couple of centuries of data that show zero correlation between GDP growth and inflation.

What this means to you: if you have a mortgage, keep it.  Refinancing is not an especially good idea right now, unless you are currently in a sub-prime loan or in an option ARM or other adjustable, in which case you need to call us right now (801-310-3407) or send us an email.

If you are an investor, we’re balancing the reduced market for homebuyers (as mortgage rates rise, the purchasing power of people declines respective to houses) and the increased payment risk (so far fairly minimal) against the economic growth that continues to drive housing stock upward in price, at least in Utah.  So far, most of our recommendations have been to proceed.  But there are some cautionary tales out there.

Build jobs continue to be a good source of revenue.  There are margins to be had out there on houses in the $225k range and upward.  We have several clients working those kinds of deals right now – and we’re one of them.

I never commented on my predictions of the past weekend, most of which (again) were inaccurate in the extreme.  My credentials as an economist continue to grow.  

To recap, Colorado State did not lose to Utah after returning a fumble for a touchdown.  In fact, CSU stopped Utah four times inside the 5 yard line – 3 times inside the 1 – to beat the Utes in the final minute of the game.  Ray drove all the way to Colorado and back for that.  He says it was worth it.  Boston was beaten by Chicago, but in 3 games, not 5.  The Yankees actually lost to the Angels in 5 games.  The Bengals did not reach 5-0 (although I was correct that no one cared), and the US soccer team lost to Costa Rica 2-0 (and again, nobody cared.  They did win last night over Panama).

However, there was no terrorist attack, as predicted.  The New York terror alert now appears to have been a hoax.  And for once, my BYU prediction was right on the money.  Cougars staged a hugely unlikely rally in the 4th quarter and beat New Mexico on the road 27-24.  So my streak continues.  One pick, every weekend, comes true exactly as I say it will.  Be afraid.  Be very afraid.

You know, your predictions are welcome.

Note on the website.  Apparently we have lost the server for www.thechrisjonesgroup.com.  We’re working on how that happened, but we have issued a n order to transfer the DNS registry to another server, which ought to fix the problem.  Computers being what they are, though, if you’re sending us email, send it to chris@chrisjonesgroup.com, and that will work.

A Plethora of Things Going On

A plethora of things to discuss today.  Yes, El Guapo, we have a plethora. (ref)

The Fed Chair position is up for grabs.  Let us be the first to cast our vote solidly with Robert McTeer, ex-Dallas Fed Chair and a strong friend of the idea that if everyone is producing, everyone gets rich.  I am a proponent, as most of you know, of Paul Craig Roberts-style supply-side economics, and McTeer appears to me to be the best available guy among those likely to be considered.  But given how Bush makes his appointments, I suppose I’ll have to get used to the idea of Bernanke or Hubbard or Feldstein, none of whom appear to me to be likely to reverse any of the current insanity.

The bond market finished a miserable week with a tiny ray of hope for Monday.  Employment numbers were not off nearly as much as forecast (adjusted for Katrina), but there is a good deal of economic uncertainty due to lingering hurricane effects and the warning of terrorist attacks in New York.  This warning, incidentally, came from captured documents in Iraq.  So much for the “there’s no link between Iraq and terrorism” idea, a truly, truly kooky one to start with.  Remember, a falling 10-year bond means rising mortgage interest rates.

The stock market got leveled this week, which means that everyone was selling both stocks AND bonds.  Where all the money is going, I can’t say.  I’m not getting much of it.  And what I am getting is going right back out into circulation, believe you me.

Maybe it’s your fault.

The Dow Industrials, bellweather of the broader market, are trading at 10,323.  One year ago, they were trading at 10,310.  The five-year chart shows the Dow at 10,200 and change in 2000.  In other words, the stock market has been flat for five years, with a really ugly trough in the middle.  The economy is growing at a good pace and the recovery has been in full swing since early in ’03.  Look at the chart.  Things were cooking along until spring of ’04.  What happened in ’04 that could have stalled us out?

Oh, wait.

Monday or Tuesday we’ll have a guest article by Geoff Beckstrom, a client and smart financial guy, whose website is linked to the right on the blogroll.

I spent a very pleasant lunch (without the food) at the Apollo Dance Hall in American Fork.  It’s owned by a fellow named Osmond, whom I did not know, but it is run by Toni Sly, who is the person that recruited me into the American Cancer Society, and one of my favorite people.  The Osmonds and Toni and lots of volunteers from the local deaf community (Verl Osmond has deep connections in that community and has done a great deal of work there) have fully renovated the old building and have invited the friends of The Chris Jones Group to come dancing tomorrow night.  8:00pm, the address is 50 East 50 North in AF.  If you mention that you’re with me, you get in free.  No fooling.

Twelfth Night, which will be on January 6, will be held at the Apollo.  We’re considering a murder for that evening, but rest assured it will be something to see, whatever we end up doing.  You’re invited.  You have to RSVP, and we will have space considerations this year, so do it early.

Predictions for the weekend:

BYU will beat New Mexico by 3.
Colorado State will return a fumble for a touchdown against Utah, but will lose.
Boston will be beaten in 5 games by Chicago.
New York will beat the Angels in 4.
The Bengals will reach 5-0 and no one will care.
The USA will tie Costa Rica 1-1 on Saturday.  And even more no one will care.  Except me.
There will be no terrorist attacks in New York – or anywhere else in the USA – for the 1489th consecutive day since 9/11.

Your Mortgage or Your Life? A Perspective.

I was mostly out of the office the last couple days.  Nothing happened, so you didn’t miss anything.

Actually, something did happen.  After the previous post about John who was having hard time getting over the screwups that happened on his deal, I got an email from another client who was a little miffed (well, a lot miffed, actually) over the Shameless Plug in the most recent newsletter.  See the comment, though, for a view from a happy client.  Didn’t want you to think there was an epidemic or anything.

An aside: we are, as you see, very techno-savvy here at the CJG.  Oh yes, we love technology, but not as much as you you see. (reference)  But we are also devotees of snail mail.  I am an avid book reader (currently reading: Lost Country Life, John Adams, and Holly Hanberg’s debut novel On the Table, about which more later) and there’s something about having paper in your hand that satisfies in a way e-print does not.  We do send out a blizzards of email, and we blog, and we do other e-things, but we send out more mail – all solicited – than US Bank does in this state.  If you want on the newsletter mailing list, and you so do, hit me here.

The Plug says that we did three impossibly complex loans in two different states with three different Realtors and three different title companies in less than a month.  The client objected to the less than part, and emailed us to say that according to her timeline, it was way more than a month.  Like, 45 days.  She got a little heated about it, actually.

We (Ray and I) immediately reconstructed the timeline for her.  Turns out the following are true:

• The client signed the first purchase contract on July 22


• That contract was first transmitted to us on August 2


• The loan was logged on August 8 (when Ray gets it, then it’s a real loan)


• That loan was closed on August 21 – 13 days later, and 29 days from the inking of the contract


• The last loan was closed on September 6, 28 days after Ray logged the receipt of the original purchase contract


• All three loans were closed in 34 days from the date we first received the first contract


• Each individual loan was closed in 27 days or less

Now, you’ll pardon us if we looked at this complaint and were a little bit bewildered that we would be called on the carpet for being “deceitful”.  We had a nice conversation, lasting 41 minutes and 29 seconds (phone logs available upon request), and during the conversation the client and I both made a similar observation.

To wit: loans are stressful.  There’s a lot of money flying around here.  This stress causes people to lose perspective, and we include ourselves in the people part.  Under stress – and even in everyday situations – the tendency is to magnify the things that are going wrong and to ignore the things that aren’t.  Some people call this “realism”, but those people are just as delusional as the rest of us.  How are things going?  Well, I’m not in Kandahar being shot at.  I don’t live in a cave.  I have food.  My city has not been destroyed by a hurricane.  My wife is still speaking to me despite being in the first trimester of her seventh pregnancy.  I have three for-sure friends that I can think of.  How are things going?  Pretty well.  Pretty freakin’ well.  Oh, yeah, there’s this bill I need to pay, and we don’t have the appraisal back yet on the Hawthorne property, and nobody has yet made my client an offer he can’t refuse on his house in Payson.  So I’m likely to answer that things are crappy.  Precisely the opposite is true.  Don’t you do this?  I do.

It became evident that in the middle of a really crappy morning the client decided to take some frustrations out on us, and we ended up by her saying “you know, the thing I hate about this business the most (she’s a Realtor) is the clients that I kill myself doing great things for, who then turn around and complain about the tiniest things.  And then I just did that to you guys.”  So all is forgiven, we hope.

I’m taking it as a lesson for me that I need to be just a little more grateful, have a better perspective on what’s really happening.

The sun is shining.  It’s a perfect day.  I ran 2.5 miles this morning and did not require emergency medical care.  My children slept well, they’re all healthy, and we prayed and sang together this morning before they went out the door.  Yeah, things are pretty good.

Hope the same is true for you.