Wednesday, July 23, 2008

Warning: Religion!

Likely, this post won't make my regular handful of readers angry; I know most of them quite well and one of the reasons they read my stuff is we agree on a lot of it. But I am sort of hoping there will be interlopers this time, people that do not agree, because I think it's important to have a conversation about this.

Today's topic: purity.

And right away we have mental images that are conflicting and likely somewhat negative. So let's get to terms immediately. Raise your hand if you consider yourself pure. Excellent. Nobody. I didn't raise my hand either. Now hands up, please, if you think purity is impossible. Not many hands there, either (most of you thought of Christ at some point when considering this, as I did). Therefore, since most of us do not consider ourselves pure, yet believe that purity is possible, would I be right in saying that most of us are disappointed with ourselves?

I know I am.

Once, that wasn't such a problem for people in this country. People knew they were imperfect and reconciled that imperfection with recourse to religion. But in the 60s, the notion that everyone was just fine as they were, thanks, began making the rounds as a movement (of course, the concept itself has been around since Cain). This has lots of advantages, in that you can just flat reject the idea that you should feel guilty about anything.

Problem with that is, people still did. You can tell yourself all day that you're fine, that none of this cheating and lying and sleeping with the neighbor's wife is any big deal, everyone's doing it, what's the matter anyway, since all this stuff is just a manifestation of white-male dark-ages religious fanaticism. And lots of people did tell themselves this. But it didn't take, if the culture is any evidence. You don't need to keep telling yourself that you're just fine and psychoanalyzing your guilt away if you don't feel any.

And everyone feels it (some not so often, admittedly). So when all that psychobabble didn't do the trick, the world turned to another age-old concept, which is that the rules themselves were to blame. Get rid of the rules, and the guilt goes away. Since most people believed that the rules came from God, that necessitated either destroying God (which "science" chose to do) or pretending that God never sent us any rules (which was the choice of "religion"). We're not going to debate the existence of God here. To those of use that know Him, the debate is farce itself, and to those that don't know Him, debate is pointless. There will be proselyting another time.

But let's deal with the idea that God sent no rules. You would think that if you believe in the concept of God that you would therefore believe in the concept of rules, since in every religion I know of God has some sort of book, and in that book there are lots and lots of fairly explicit rules to follow. And yet there exists in the world at large, and most prevalently in the US, a set of believers in a God that has no rules. This makes religion most convenient, you will immediately realize, because it allows one to be a good, God-worshipping individual (which US culture encourages) and still have fun at prom. This is a concept with real durability.

My argument against it is not based on any evidence that the trend can be reversed, so don't get that idea. Yet there are those that are attempting to reverse it. There's this group, which sponsors a "Purity Ball" designed to give girls and their fathers a framework (and a buddy) with which to resist the idea that anything goes. It runs counter to culture. There is a good deal of opposition and snipping about "letting girls explore their sexuality" and other such, but it seems to me a good idea. Fathers too long have gotten away with thinking mothers will do the heavy lifting on daughter-rearing (or, egads, that none need be done at all), and this group gives dads back a sense of their power and their responsibility in raising their daughters. Good for them.

There are others. My church released a proclamation a few years back that basically says the family is important, mothers and fathers have responsibilities, and there are rules about these things that matter, which rules come from God and can't be dismissed by Dr. Ruth Westheimer. There's the old adage that one can't break the commandments; one can only break oneself on the commandments. It's an adage because it's largely true.

Girls today - and dare I say, boys today - can be pure. They can be. It's hard, but it's always been hard. It's harder, perhaps, than it has ever been, but folks, shouldn't something be harder now than it ever was? Heaven knows practically everything we do these days is 20x easier than it has ever been, from listening to music to staying cool in the summer. It seems only fair that today's kids have some kind of troubles to deal with. So I don't buy the cop outs. I don't care that it's hard, that TV and the Internet bombard us with opportunities to view and participate in filth of all kinds - or, I care, but it doesn't matter. It's a reason why we do stupid things, but it's still not an excuse to do them.

I do stupid things, too, so I know whereof I speak. I fall short of my professed ideals. Happens every day. I feel guilty about it. I know I could be and should be better, but that doesn't mean I don't have purity as a goal every single day. It is the standard I commit to live by. Call me a hypocrite if you like, but which is worse, a man with standards that admits he does not always measure up to them or a man without any standards at all?

Kids today (and adults as well) can have and can live up to standards of purity. If they do they will be happier, more productive, better at school and in social engagements. They will have better marriages and families, fewer illnesses, more opportunities for accomplishment. Every study ever done on this subject backs this up. All will fail to meet the standard. All will be better than if they hadn't tried.

It's time to be bold about this, parents. It sucks not to go out drinking and get laid at prom, especially when it looks like so many other kids are doing it and enjoying themselves. Tough. We're not budging on this. Despite what it looks like, the dawn comes after the dance, and the ones who are happiest to meet it are the ones that remember without regret what they did the night before.

The Purity Ball people have the girls make a pledge that they won't date unless the guy asks their father for permission. Anyone else think that sounds like a good rule to start with?

Cj

P.S. I do have to address the idea that failure to meet the standard engenders feelings of hopelessness and shame. First, I'm a fan of shame. I think we don't have enough of that left these days. But shame isn't the purpose of the rule any more than smoke is the purpose of a campfire; it's a by-product, not the aim, and it's to be gotten rid of as quickly as possible. Not by putting out the fire, but by burning off the poor-quality fuel. Shame tells us to change what we're doing. When we are not true to the best of ourselves, we should feel bad about it, and then we should fix it.

Of course, the fact is that we can't fix it. Once something busts, it's beyond our power to mend it. I don't reconcile my shortcomings by trying harder (although I do try harder); I reconcile them with repentance. The God that gave me the rule also gave me a Ruler, and His job is to take the blame, even though I deserve it. If I allow Him to take it, He gives me a new rule, one that I can follow a little better. He asks me to be humble, to be kind, and to love everyone. That's not easy, either, but it's something I can work on because I have a teacher that keeps the heat off while I study.

Many people have trouble with this principle, and I used to be one of them. That trouble sometimes leads to people committing suicide, divorcing, going completely off the rails in one way or another. I'm not ignorant of that. The solution is not to get rid of the rules, to pretend that they or their Giver don't exist. That way madness lies. Neither is the solution to pretend that one does keep them all, because only One could (and we aren't Him). The rules are important, our effort is important, and in the conjunction between our efforts and the mercy of God in sending His Son, there is peace. And purity.

Tuesday, July 22, 2008

At Least Oil Is Down Too

  • Bonds rallied yesterday a little, but have given back all that
    momentum and more today, so we're back to where we were Friday on
    rates. At least oil is falling - we're more than $18 off the high and
    still going.

  • There is a proposal out there being put together by a
    private/public consortium of mortgage people and government regulators
    that actually has some merit. It will be a couple of months before we
    get the full details, but right now it appears that what we're looking
    at is a plan to increase transparency in the packaging of mortgage
    loans so they can be purchased. This would add confidence to the
    secondary mortgage market, increase liquidity, and probably drive down
    rates, especially for good borrowers.
  • This is the technical part, so skip it if you don't care:
    mortgages are packaged in large groups for sale on the secondary
    market. Primary lenders have used this packaging to shed loans from
    the books and obtain new lending capital. However, up to the moment,
    the packages of loans have been fairly opaque; that is, the secondary
    financiers were never quite sure what it is they were buying. The
    packages of securitized loans were often significantly heterogeneous,
    and as the market has melted down, that has contributed to the
    distress, because the lending institutions that purchased these
    packages couldn't really tell what they were worth - they didn't know.


  • Some of the loans were fine, most of them, even, but many were
    not. How many? Nobody knew. Was this package better or worse than
    that one? Nobody knew. How much real exposure did the financier have
    to market downturn? Nobody knew.
  • To a large extent, nobody knows now, either, which is why the
    recent spate of better-than expected earnings from servicing banks has
    been such welcome news. At least we're pretty sure the entire
    portfolio isn't going to self-destruct.
  • This opacity does two things: one, it increases risk-based
    pricing for good loans (20%+ equity, 720 credit, full income
    documentation) while significantly decreasing pricing for bad loans,
    and two, it allows lenders to make riskier loans, because they can then
    package them with good ones and sell the whole shooting match as "A"
    credit mortgages.
  • You're right, this is stupid.
  • What this proposal would do, then, is make it much easier for an
    investor to tell what he was buying, because all the loans in any given
    package would share characteristics. This will increase liquidity,
    especially for good borrowers, and get some money moving in the
    mortgage market again. Rates will fall for less risky loans.
  • Rates will, of course, rise for more risky ones, which will
    emphasize things that need emphasizing, like having a job and some
    money in the bank, and a history of paying bills on time. That will be
    painful for some, but better on the whole for everyone.
  • Congress will then step in and prohibit risk-based pricing as
    being discriminatory, and the entire market will collapse. But we will
    have made a good try, and that's important.

Wednesday, July 16, 2008

Global Warming! AAAAAA!

In the last 6 years in Utah County, the latest day of the year that the high temperature hit 100 degrees was Bastille Day, July 14.

Today is the 16th, and we have yet to hit 100 this year.

In 2003, there was only one day that we hit 100, but every other year there were at least six days, almost all of them in the last two weeks of July. So far this month, we have had only one day above 97, which means we're running about 3 degrees cooler than normal for the last 6 years.

I blame global warming and George Bush.

Tuesday, July 15, 2008

FHA Guideline Changes

Rates today are the same as yesterday.



What I want to take a minute to do is acquaint you with some of the new
rules for FHA loans that will be effective August 1. These are
critical to many borrowers, as FHA loans are currently substantially
better both in interest rate and in underwriting flexibility than
conventional financing.



Previously:

No loans approved less than 2 years from bankruptcy.

As of August 1:

No loans approved less than 4 years from bankruptcy, unless significant extenuating circumstances can be proved.



Previously:

No loans approved less than 3 years from foreclosure

As of August 1:

No loans approved less than 7 years from foreclosure



Previously:

Rental income allowed to offset liability for residence being converted to investment property (when purchasing a new home)

As of August 1:

Rental income disallowed on conversion to investment, unless 30% equity in the property.



There are more in the same vein. Please be aware of these changes.
Additionally, FHA is changing LTV requirements, cashout requirements
and reserve requirements for most loans, and altering the up-front
mortgage insurance premium required, although in this case, it is true
that many borrowers will now pay less than they otherwise would have.
So it's not all bad news.



Stay tuned for more. And as always, call with questions (801-310-3407)
or hit reply and we can get you the information you need.



Cj

Thursday, July 10, 2008

Happy Birthday, Sis.

She was supposed to be the last one of us, and she was about as close to perfect as you could ask for.

My sister Catherine Gwynedd was born 28 years ago today. Seems impossible that it's been that long, but it has. She is the fourth of what eventually became five sisters, the sixth of seven children. She has ebony-dark hair and creamy white skin, the only one of us that looks like that. She's thin and tall and pretty, sings like a canary and is perhaps the single most organized person I ever met.

So, as I said, she's perfect.

This drove her sister Allison - a grasshopper bracketed by ants - up a wall, understandably. If she hadn't been so cute, there might have been real trouble. As it was, and is, though, she's extremely hard to hate.

When she was about six, she met this kid from down the way named Scott, little Scotty Carlson I called him, and decided she was going to marry him. Scott never had a chance, for which thing, I think, he'll be eternally grateful.

All through my mission in Hungary, I kept hearing that she thought I was playing basketball (I was gone a lot for that). When I got back, we took a family picture and tucked in the sash of her dress was a little plastic sword from the dinner we had eaten right before that. I love that picture; it's my favorite family photo.

She sang at our Granny's funeral, a song so achingly beautiful and so appropriate to the woman she was commemorating that none of us that were there will ever forget it. Her voice continues soaring and beautiful, not an operatic voice, but one of the sweetest and purest lyrical soprano voices God ever made. Her Christmas CD that she gave me as a gift is on permanent rotation on my computer. Yep, even in the summer.

Now she's a mother and some of that organization has cracked 'round the edges, at it will, and she's had to learn as much about modern fighter aircraft as she knows about opera (Scott is an aerospace engineer), but she's still the one we all assume will be planning any big family event. Hoping she will, because, like everything else she does, it will be flawless.

I love you, Cath. Happy birthday.

Tuesday, July 08, 2008

Extra! Extra!

You Read It Here First


  • Oil has lost over $8 the last two days. If the runup in crude
    oil prices is, as has been contended often, mostly driven by
    speculators and hysteria, let's all remember that hysteria works in
    both directions. On the upside, it's called "irrational exuberance".
    On the downside, it's called panic.
  • All commodities, actually, are down rather significantly from
    their highs, including precious metals and even corn and wheat. It
    appears that our capacity to grow things, find things, and innovate out
    of needing things is, in fact, expanding. Shocker.
  • Bonds are up, the stock market is down, and despite FNMA and
    FHLMC writing off another $42 billion in bad debt yesterday, both those
    stocks are up this morning and there isn't any apparent worry that the
    backbone of the mortgage system will collapse any time soon.
  • Fact is, the vast majority of homeowners will pay their bills on
    time and repay their mortgages on schedule. There's a lot of hysteria
    out there in the credit markets, but there are still good loans to be
    had, and lots of good people that need them. Lenders need to add
    really good loans to their portfolios, and are keeping rates relatively
    low to attract them.
  • Here's the prediction: the sky is not falling. Oil will not hit
    $150 a barrel this year. Gas will not reach $5 a gallon this year, or
    next year. Mortgage rates will not hit 7% this year or next year. By
    spring of next year there will be a significant, noticeable rally in
    real estate. The world financial system will not collapse. Innovation
    will explode.
  • You read it here first.

Cj


www.thechrisjonesgroup.com