Market Drift

The markets are drifting coming into (specifically) the Fed Meeting tomorrow and (generally) the end of the year.  The biggest remaining economic news for the year will relate to the Christmas buying spree and (believe it or not) whether the Fed continues to use the word “measured” in its description of how fast it’s going to raise rates.  For bond traders, apparently the question is not whether the Fed will continue to jack up rates – that’s pretty much a given tomorrow and in January – but whether it will signal that it’s going to keep doing so after that.  If it does so signal, bonds are going to get crushed on Wednesday.  If it signals something else, like that it might be willing to pause and see if raising the Fed rate by almost 4 points in a year and a half is going to cause economic problems, then bonds could do very well all of a sudden.  That would be good for mortgage rates.

In our analysis of our loan pipeline, which we do annually, we discover that despite our best efforts, December has always been the #1 month of the year for loan closings.  This December appears to be no exception.  The holidays do cause significant problems with the timing of closings, because there are two major holidays in a week at the end of December.  For instance, if we want to fund a refinance loan this year we have to close it by the 23rd of December, otherwise the funding will take place on January 3.  Seriously.  This wall-to-wall effort to get these loans done before the end of the year may have an impact on the consistency of this blog.  Just warning you in advance.  It gets sort of nuts here this time of year.

We are still seeing seriously terrific returns on investing in real estate in Utah. We ourselves just finished up our very first investment deal as a Group, and it worked out nicely.  We’re not rich or anything, but we got the same returns our clients have been getting all year, so that was a hopeful sign.  We’re getting ready to do some more.  Wanna come along?

Working on two major essays: the much-touted “I’m Sick Of Hearing About The True Meaning Of Christmas” and another one called “Scrooge Strikes Back”, which somehow isn’t coming together all that well.  This kind of thing happens.  Plus we’re writing everyone a Christmas note in the card we’re sending you.  Hectic, to be sure, just like your life.

But it’s still the Most Wonderful Time of the Year.